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Old 02-17-2005, 11:15 AM   #1 (Print)
pgogborn
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'free global TiVo on the internet' could kill the PVR

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new technologies (such as set-top boxes and TiVo) are changing viewing from a serial to a database experience. Instead of watching Eastenders when the TV guide says, you can store it and view when you like.

But the writing may be on the wall for TiVo-like devices because of what David Price, a researcher with Envisional of Cambridge, calls the free global TiVo on the internet. He is referring to the dramatic upsurge in downloading films and TV shows through peer-to-peer sharing facilities on the web. The biggest of these, BitTorrent, is reckoned (by CacheLogic, another Cambridge company), to account for over a third of all data carried on the net (of which 10% is TV piracy) >
http://www.guardian.co.uk/online/st...1415715,00.html


OK, it is a bit of researchers hype (although it is interesting that a British based researcher is still using the TiVo as a point of reference), but consider this...

It is just about possible to buy 2 terabytes of hard drive storage retail for about the launch price of the UK TiVo (is 2TB the maximum drive space that Windows XP can address, or just the maximum partition size?).

The movement to 2Mbps ADSL broadband speeds in the UK could soon be regarded as pedestrian. Problems of running ADSL2+ alongside ADSL have been resolved and it has just been recognized as an official standard.

ADSL2+ is coming to the UK by the end of the year. 11 Mbps speeds are easily obtainable.
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Old 02-17-2005, 11:42 AM   #2 (Print)
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Can I assume that although downstream rates can go up to 25Mbps (on a short line), the upstream rate is still 256Kbps? If so, it's going to make running your own home webserver, or a file-sharing system, over ADSL look a bit sick.

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Old 02-17-2005, 01:10 PM   #3 (Print)
groovyclam
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I get the feeling that TV delivery is going to radically change over the next 10 years.

Five years from now I am pretty sure PVRs will be common place. Let's face it, they are still just a niche item at the moment but Sky+ is approaching a sort-of undrstanding/recognition point now and when the cable companies launch their PVRs things will also improve.

I get the feeling that mass market will go something like:

1) VCR dies out
2) Recordable DVD players become commonplace instead of VCRs
3) Some of these recordable DVD players will also be forward thinking and be able to play data disks with jpegs and avi files on them not just "DVD" disks
4) Windows MCE boxes will also make further inroads under Joe Blogg's TV
5) Bittorrented TV shows run rampant on the net unless squashed by lawsuits agains tracker-hosting sites
6) ADSL speeds increase

Result is TV station scheduling is shot to hell as more and more people bittorrent new episodes and/or physically swap DVD disks of recorded shows

I can't imagine how TV companies will get around this.

The only thing I can think of is if they embrace the technology like the music business did when faced with MP3 downloading so TV companies, instead of being broadcasters, become webstores selling the latest episode of your favourite show for download or on disk on a "per episode" charge.

Not sure how HDTV fits into this.
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Old 02-17-2005, 02:48 PM   #4 (Print)
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We've got 9Mbps VDSL available here but I can't justify the 60 euro/month cost. The upstream is 400kbps. I'll stick with 4Mbps ADSL for now with the upstream at 384Kbps (I think).

Apparently, getting VDSL will require a telco engineer to come around and do some magic with the phone connection. It seems the frequencies used are different so I expect he'd have to change the filters.
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Old 02-17-2005, 03:31 PM   #5 (Print)
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Whilst broadband may be cheap (and getting cheaper all the time) you still usually have a 1:50 contention ratio - which is why it is cheap, you share with 49 other people.

If you are constantly pulling down data using the whole bandwidth, then you need a 1:1 contention line, and these are about £300/month!

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Old 02-17-2005, 04:26 PM   #6 (Print)
worm
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An awful lot of people don't have Broadband (either through choice or lack of availability)
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Old 02-17-2005, 05:05 PM   #7 (Print)
pgogborn
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But far more people have broadband than TiVo.

At the moment, in the UK, there is so little Internet activity between 1am and 6am, that some ISP providers do not impose any caps on broadband activity at that time. It is possible to schedule an automatic download of required files.
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Old 02-17-2005, 05:06 PM   #8 (Print)
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I often download TV shows from Bittorrent sites. Hadn't really thought about it as a competitor to Tivo. To me, its more a competitor to the UK TV companies.

Why? because I can download episodes of my fave TV shows, ad free only hours after it has aired in the US and often weeks/months before it airs in the UK. Quality of the HDTV releases are better too.

I used to use my friends Snapstream PVR to watch TV in the US but got sick of the 6 ad breaks in every episode.

Its got to the point now that I haven't watched anything new on Sky for literally years and the only reason I keep it is so the kids can watch the cartoon channels!

The net result is that less people are watching "real" TV and hence not watching the adverts. That in turn may partly explain why excellent shows are still struggling for audiences.
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Old 02-17-2005, 05:33 PM   #9 (Print)
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There is still a role for the broadcasters in acting as a filter and editor of the "good current stuff". TiVo sits on top of that as an even better filter and editor, so I'm left with just the shows I want.

Dumping me on a web site whith 2,000,000 shows "on demand" is no good to me - how can I possibly choose?

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Old 02-17-2005, 08:33 PM   #10 (Print)
Tony Hoyle
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If you had a 256k upstream and a 25MB downstream the ack packets alone would probably saturate your upstream before you got tha speed... it just wouldn't work.

Also about the 50:1 ratio that's a common misconception. Cable is contended like that (it's contended at the street level so you may well have bandwidth for 1 or 2 people and 100 people using it), but DSL is contended at the gateway - you maybe 1,000 ports for 50,000 users (actually in practice no ISP goes over 15:1 so it's more like 1,000 ports for 15,000 users). If the majority of those are casual users then you're unlikely ever to see any slowdown... I've never seen any contention issues in 4 years.
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Old 02-18-2005, 12:24 AM   #11 (Print)
groovyclam
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Quote:
There is still a role for the broadcasters in acting as a filter and editor of the "good current stuff". TiVo sits on top of that as an even better filter and editor, so I'm left with just the shows I want.

Dumping me on a web site whith 2,000,000 shows "on demand" is no good to me - how can I possibly choose?


In the same way you choose what films to go and see at the cinema now ( or rent the DVD of )

Anyway, you are making informed decisions even now of what season passes/wishlists to create on TiVo ( I seriously doubt you let TiVo operate just via thumbs/suggestions ). Where are you getting that information from right now ? That same decision making process you use now can be applied to a properly indexed website of TV show episodes, coupled with your favourite/trusted TV "webisode" review source ( be that paper/website/friends/websitecommunityoflikemindedindividuals )

( Imagine the power of DigiGuide's refined searches automatically seeking out and making a connection to the website hosting the file and automatically pulling it down and automatically plopping it in your MCE box for playback - the end result appears exactly like TiVo/broadcasting *now* but instead is website based. Your friends who recommend shows to you and trusted-review-sources-who-share-your-TV-interests would send you DigiGuide markers for you to add to your setup by just clicking on them )

When boxes under the TV that allow easy playback of files written to disk ( i.e. recordable DVD players and/or MCE-like HTPCs ) become ubiquitous ( which *will* happen ) then TV fileswapping will certainly escalate. The only issue is how fast this happens and at what level it needs to reach to ruin a TV channel's ad-break revenue.

*If* TV fileswapping damages advertising revenue in the way the US channels are already complaining about then the commercial channels will have to generate revenue in a different way.

At the moment I am guessing a "proper" subscription model will be the result - like HBO in the US. You sub to HBO and you can watch their channel advert free. You could argue that the BBC operates in exactly the same way over here. An extension of that would be the subscription allows you to log onto the channel's web site and download their webisodes as a supplement to broadcasting.

The only barriers stopping this happening are:

1) At the moment relatively few people have the ability to play a downloaded TV show on their TV at the moment -> the rise of MCE HTPCs ( or better still Linux HTPCs ) and recordable DVD players ( that can also play jpegs/avi files written to DVD data disks ) will fix this.

2) Internet connection speeds/costs -> speed is always increasing and price dropping. In five years time dialup will be nearly dead except for unfortunates who can't physically get ADSL.
A 1Mb ADSL line can download the latest episode of Star Trek:Enterprise right now via Bittorrent in just 4 hours. In five years time how much more quickly will that happen ?

3) Content protection -> the holy grail for content providers. How do they stop the file Fred paid for and downloaded from being sent to all of Fred's mates ? I believe there are moves to try to put watermarks and such into files to only allow playback once or on your own hardware but I am not sure how well this would really work or if hacks could be prevented to uncripple files. I'm not aufait with the MP3 world but doesn't that happen now with sites like iTunes ( or am I mistaken ? )

---

In the world of the future where everyone has megabroadband and boxes under the TV that can play any file/disk format you could argue that traditional broadcasting is actually damaging your revenue stream as it allows capture and copying to an unprotected file of your broadcast TV show.

Unless a broadcaster's receiving/unscrambling hardware is a totally closed system and it only displays via some protected port that allows no capture of the display signal then broadcasting itself allows TV show copying.

I believe the HDTV Skybox is trying to head this way but I can't see how they can prevent someone from making a PCI card to receive the output from a HDTV Skybox via the correct handshaking port and then dumps it to the PC to allow the user to do whatever they want with the signal ( copy/edit/playback )

It's very "interesting times" ahead ( in the Chinese saying sense ) if you are a TV broadcaster/channel. The BBC were definitely ahead of the curve with their "broadcast assassins" ideas exchange.
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Old 02-18-2005, 02:57 AM   #12 (Print)
GarySargent
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Hoyle
If the majority of those are casual users then you're unlikely ever to see any slowdown... I've never seen any contention issues in 4 years.


Agreed - what I was getting at was if there is a shift towards heavy usage (downloading TV programmes) and this is widespread, then the contention does become an issue. You might have faster ADSL, but the contention will still be there as it is what keeps the costs down.

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Old 02-18-2005, 04:58 AM   #13 (Print)
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......(is 2TB the maximum drive space that Windows XP can address, or just the maximum partition size?).


The maximum boot volume size for XP is 2TB. This is a limitation of partition table entries (nothing to do with XP). If you use dynamic disks the maximum boot volume is 16TB for 4k clusters (standard) and 256TB for 64k clusters.

The maximum sized disk XP can address is 2^64 bytes (16 exa bytes), though I have a feeling it is limited to 128TB per volume, though you can join volumes to make bigger "disks" if you require.

Biggest file I have seen in use is an 18TB file on a 500TB raid array, using Broadcom SATA RAID controllers.
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Old 02-18-2005, 04:59 AM   #14 (Print)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by groovyclam
A 1Mb ADSL line can download the latest episode of Star Trek:Enterprise right now via Bittorrent in just 4 hours. In five years time how much more quickly will that happen ?
I haven't used BitTorrent, but don't you have to let people download from you as much as you download from others, to retain the maximum speed? Or, in practice, can you still get adequate speeds?

If the former, you will have to leave your PC available for downloads for an absolute minimum of 16 hours, to compensate for a 4 hour download. Given the need to restrict upload bandwidth to allow normal internet activities on your PC, and allowing for the lack of interest in your available files, one would assume that it would be considerably longer.

Increase the line speed to (say) 12Mbps and, within each 24 hour period, you would probably get a lot, lot less than 30 minutes per day to download BitTorrent files. Upping the download speed isn't going to help with file sharing systems unless the upload speeds are increased as well. OK, I do realise that you can download a lot in 10 minutes with a 12Mbps connection, assuming that the file servers support it.

Asynchronous DSL does have its drawbacks.

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Old 02-18-2005, 06:36 AM   #15 (Print)
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I haven't used BitTorrent, but don't you have to let people download from you as much as you download from others, to retain the maximum speed? Or, in practice, can you still get adequate speeds?


As I said, a current 1Mb ADSL line grabs a 40-ish minute episode of ST:Enterprise in about 3~4 hours.

The more popular a file is, the quicker the download takes ( unpopular ones can become unseeded meaning you will never get it completely ). Episodes of ST:Enterprise are geek mana so that is the "fast"example.

It is best practice to leave the file on your hard drive seeding ( uploading ) until you have uploaded as much as you downloaded ( longer is nicer ) but you have access to the file as soon as if finishes downloading, seeding doesn't prevent using the file.

Your time conjectures are a bit off ( over estimated ) compared to reality but there are several factors acting that can change matters. In practise it can be very quick for popular files and slow for older/unpopular files to finish seeding.

Frankly the seeding isn't an issue - the upload rate can be throttled per file and unless you really need the disk space back there is no issue with leaving a file seeding in the background unless you are very precious about leaving your computer on.

Of course in the future if flat rate ADSL pricing changes to costing per byte uploaded/downloaded this will have an effect on large file transfers. ( If the TV companies/film studios colluded with ADSL providers to make large file transfer costly that could be a way of controlling TV episode fileswapping and DVD ripping - it's unlikely but it is a way )

We are getting off topic now. Enough with the Bittorrent.

The general idea is TV episodes delivered via download and how easy/how much it costs us and the TV companies rather than how Bittorrent works.
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Old 02-18-2005, 07:20 AM   #16 (Print)
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Not wanting to stray too much off topic, I was simply stating that a 12Mbps ADSL line would appear to have a 48:1 ratio between download and upload capacity. For a paid 'download-only' service that would be OK. For any file-sharing service where you're expected to upload as much as you download, that would only allow 30 minutes of maximum-speed download for every 24 hours of 100% committed uploading.

To me, that would make a paid download service more attractive than a file-sharing service, and might reduce the demand for that type of file-sharing service.

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Old 02-18-2005, 07:23 AM   #17 (Print)
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My 2p - the technical knowledge to run a bit torrent system probably isn't that great and the amount of 'free' stuff is definitely attractive if you don't care about piracy. But the coszt of entry is high (a half decent PC and a broadband connection)
My understanding is the wear and tear on disks is massive at 512Kbp/s so increased bandwidth would only increase that?
In the end I don't want to buy an MS media server nor do I want to house and administer a terrabyte redundant array in my house.

Video on demand is my front runner...I think the BBC is going in the right direction with their radio programming online with the opportunity to stream recent programmes after their 'publication' on standard broadcast.
If they extended this to TV it complements their broadcast model for the vast majority and lets the early adopters do more. It also addresses Sanderton's too much choice problem. Normal marketing and promotion of big shows continues, just you don't have to watch them when they air. The publication schedule still works and limited availability of previous episodes protects your DVD (blu-ray.....) revenue stream for older content from casual piracy.

In the end I expect to see a STB that works with video on demand over cable/ADSL - look at homechoice. Eventually I expect you will have to put up with DRM streams with forced ad breaks/links. The content will be stored at the broadcaster/content distrbutors end and streamed out to customers paying on pay per view and subscription. The difference will be more choice.

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Old 02-18-2005, 07:42 AM   #18 (Print)
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The future will be interesting and I think the internet will be changing as far as speeds and price and I can say this because my house currently enjoys Verizon FIOS service that gets me 20 Megabits per second down and 2 Megabits per second up all for the low price of 44.95/month with my current phone package which costs me another 35 bucks a month. If I got the Verizon Freedom package the internet would go down to 34.95/month but I don't use that much long distance and it happens to be that getting the internet as an add-on service avoids any taxes but getting in part of a 90 dollar a month bundle forces me to pay taxes on all of that amount. They tell you that you get 10 bucks a month off but you pay that back with taxes.

But either way BHN offers Road Runner at 5Mbps down and 386Kbps UP for 44.95 while Verizon offers 3Mbps down and 768Kbps UP for 44.95/month so it ends up I don't pay anything more but I get as you might guess at least twice as much upload bandwith and at least four times as much download bandwidth.
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Old 02-18-2005, 08:01 AM   #19 (Print)
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Ian why do you conjecture the need for a 12Mbs line ?

I can't follow the technical sums but if 40 minutes of video arrives in 4 hours *now* over a 1Mbs line then surely:

1 minute arrives in ( 4 x 60 ) / 40 = 6 minutes over a 1Mbs line

So I only need a 6Mbs line for 1 minute to arrive in 1 minute realtime.

No ?
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Old 02-18-2005, 08:41 AM   #20 (Print)
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Are you refrring to systems a bit like Videora?
http://www.videora.com/en-us/
Seems they've tried to do a TiVo functionality with a torrent backdrop to source the video.

bittorrent has saved me when TiVo has failed me, and the speed of sourcing a programme on a basic ADSL package suprised me, as did the number of "leechers" of said episode, 150+ continually even months after first availability.

I have to agree that the future must be heading this way.
At the moment most US soaps are easily found on the 'net and before they are broadcast over here. Making easy access to this will only increase it popularity.

As for needing a powerful PC, I use a PIII 533 and a AMD K6 laptop for playback!

Is it (or should it be) regarded as piracy if I download a programme which I missed, though I am subscribed to the channel?
e.g. I record 24. The recent listings have caused double recordings (some have "Day 4:" others not, meaning with a keep 5 episode limit I lost an episode. Is it wrong (illegal) for me to "source" that missing episode from the 'net?

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Old 02-18-2005, 08:51 AM   #21 (Print)
iankb
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Sorry groovyclam, I'm not talking about how much you can download within 30 minutes, I'm just saying that you can only make use of 1/48th of a 12Mbps line's download capacity if you had to allow uploads that equalled the download capacity, and those were the only services that you used, and that is effectively equvalent to 30 minutes of downloads (not 30 minutes of video content) within a 24 hour day.

Similarly, you could only use 1/24th of a 6Mbps line, 1/8th of a 2Mbps line, 1/4 of a 1Mbps line, etc.

i.e. During the average day, if all you used were services that required equal uploads to downloads, the maximum average throughput would be just the upload speed of 256Kbps.

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Old 02-18-2005, 11:09 AM   #22 (Print)
pgogborn
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Some interesting statistics that was published after my first post :
Quote:
British TV viewers lead the trend of illegally downloading US shows from the net, according to research.

Web tracking company Envisional said 18% of downloaders were from within the UK and that downloads of TV programmes had increased by 150% in the last year.

About 70% were using file-sharing program BitTorrent, the firm said.

A typical episode of 24 was downloaded by about 100,000 people globally, said the report, and an estimated 20,000 of those were from within the UK>
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/4276255.stm

So, if all that is to be believed, just about as many people in the UK download 24, as have TiVo subscriptions.

However, I think all this illegal activity for alleged geeks, be it BitTorrent or other, is a bit of a red herring. The situation will only become truly interesting if the video equivalent of iTunes is launched - or if it becomes a way for broadcasters to allow satellite refuseniks to become HDTV early adapters in advance of terrestrial HDTV transmitters being turned on.

On the asynchronous front, I have wondered if it is an Achilles heel. It is not one that has been noticed by 512Kbps users, but if people become used to downloading real time high quality video, perhaps they will come to expect to be see similar quality web-cam pictures of their own home etc while travelling etc.
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Old 02-18-2005, 11:18 AM   #23 (Print)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iankb
g the average day, if all you used were services that required equal uploads to downloads, the maximum average throughput would be just the upload speed of 256Kbps.


You've misunderstood how torrenting works, I think.

You are not required to download at the same rate as you upload.

Your download speed isn't limited by your upload speed. I can quite happily download at 55KB/s while uploading only a few KB/s.

What happens is that other bit torrent users can see your share ratio (down:up) - and, optionally, restrict the speed you can download from them - if they think you're not doing your bit..

It's considered nice not stop uploading until you've reached a 1:1 ratio. However, before you've reached that ratio, you can what you want with the file.

That being said, on a popular torrent, you can download at full speed without uploading (known as leeching). On an unpopular torrent you will, most likely, have your speed restricted so that everyone gets a fair chance.

I hope I've explained that well... If not - http://bittorrent.com/documentation.html
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Old 02-18-2005, 12:09 PM   #24 (Print)
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Thanks terryeden. It wasn't so much a misunderstanding as much as total ignorance, which was why I was asking for clarification further up the thread.

However, even without formal restrictions on the ratio of leech time to seed time, it does raise a question with regard to the physical limitations of asynchronous connections ...

If upload speeds of ADSL don't increase in line with download speeds, and the majority of seeds are on ADSL then, as people start trying to use the increased capacity of their faster lines, they will hit the limit of other people's upload speeds which won't have been increased. i.e. Unless there is an increase in the number of online seeds, the maximum download capacity will be no greater with 12Mbps ADSL connections than with 512Kbps ADSL connections. And any increase in the number of online seeds will almost certainly create an equivalent increase in the download demand.

Unless there is a significant increase in synchronous connections, I forecast the gradual reduction in the performance of peer-to-peer connections, and the greater attraction of commercial download services that provide high-bandwidth servers.

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Old 02-18-2005, 07:49 PM   #25 (Print)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iankb
If upload speeds of ADSL don't increase in line with download speeds, and the majority of seeds are on ADSL then, as people start trying to use the increased capacity of their faster lines, they will hit the limit of other people's upload speeds which won't have been increased.


Again - the mighty mighty power of Bit Torrent overcomes this problem!

You are correct that, in the first instance, you'll only be able to download as fast as I can upload. But once more seeders join - you'll be downloading from multiple people and will have a faster speed.

So, example.
I seed at 100kb/s. You get all my bandwidth. Eventually, you become a seeder.
Bob comes along and starts downloading from me AND you. Bob is downloading at 200Kbps because he's getting the file from both of us.
Charlie comes along and downloads from you and me AND Bob. Even if Bob hasn't got the whole file, Charlie will only download from you and me what he can't get from Bob.
Derek comes along and downloads from you, me, Bob and Charlie. He's now downloading at 4 times my original upload capacity. And the more people that join in, the faster the collective download will be.

So, right at the very start, when I first publish the file, the downloading is limited. Once there is more than one seeder... the sky's the limit!


Sorry if none of that makes sense.... Damn insomnia!
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Old 02-19-2005, 03:59 AM   #26 (Print)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by terryeden
Once there is more than one seeder... the sky's the limit!
I was talking about the absolute maximum limit of available capacity. If looking at just ASDL seeds, the global download capacity is limited to the number of active seeds, times 256Kbps.

If (and I realise that it's a very big 'if') ... if every seeder tried to download at the same time, the maximum download speed that they would get is 256Kpbs (minus a lot of overheads, including the seed's own internet usage). It doesn't help that they can get file sections from multiple sites, in that it reduces the capacity of those sites to serve anybody else. In practice, it would be a lot worse. That is because if (say) 75% of downloaders are just leeches, the maximum limit would fall to just 64Kbps.

While it seems stupid to talk about 100% of users trying to download for 100% of the time, one must remember that, as the usage rises, there will be an automatic drop in performance (my original point), and that the automatic drop will cause the service to degrade even further, and users to stay on even longer. The problem with this sort of system in the long-term is that it has a practical limit that depends on upload speeds, and that increasing the download speeds, or the capacity of the Internet, will have no real benefit. In fact, increasing download speeds will increase demand, and that will slow it down even more. The system will have to rely to a large extent on users who are able to provide fast synchronous line speeds.

To bring this thread back into context, the requirement is for people to be able to download a significant proportion of their viewing from the Internet. Given that download speeds (when limited by upload speeds) take significantly longer than the real-time length of the video content, I can't see peer-to-peer services over ADSL being able to compete in the long-term with commercial services that use synchronous servers, and that are able to support maximum download speeds (e.g. 12Mbps). Somehow, we have to get round the upload limit of asynchronous connections before we can truly support peer-to-peer in the way that people want to use it.

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Last edited by iankb : 02-19-2005 at 04:05 AM.
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Old 02-19-2005, 05:47 AM   #27 (Print)
GarySargent
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JonO
Is it wrong (illegal) for me to "source" that missing episode from the 'net?


If you downloaded it, watched it, then deleted it, you could possibly argue that this is timeshifting and is allowed.

However if you make it available to others (you have uploading turned on in your P2P app) then that is definitely illegal.

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Old 02-19-2005, 05:57 AM   #28 (Print)
terryeden
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iankb
I was talking about the absolute maximum limit of available capacity. If looking at just ASDL seeds, the global download capacity is limited to the number of active seeds, times 256Kbps.

If (and I realise that it's a very big 'if') ... if every seeder tried to download at the same time, the maximum download speed that they would get is 256Kpbs (minus a lot of overheads, including the seed's own internet usage). It doesn't help that they can get file sections from multiple sites, in that it reduces the capacity of those sites to serve anybody else. In practice, it would be a lot worse. That is because if (say) 75% of downloaders are just leeches, the maximum limit would fall to just 64Kbps.


Quite. To get maximum download, you need Seeders * upload radio. But this is not per downloader.

Quote:
To bring this thread back into context, the requirement is for people to be able to download a significant proportion of their viewing from the Internet. Given that download speeds (when limited by upload speeds) take significantly longer than the real-time length of the video content, I can't see peer-to-peer services over ADSL being able to compete in the long-term with commercial services that use synchronous servers, and that are able to support maximum download speeds (e.g. 12Mbps). Somehow, we have to get round the upload limit of asynchronous connections before we can truly support peer-to-peer in the way that people want to use it.


That's where I beleive you to be wrong. If I am the BBC (and how I wish I were!) and 100 people wanted to download a show from me - I'd need to upload at 100 * the individual download speed.

This is very expensive.

However, with P2P I only need a few times the individual download speed. Because people are not only downloading from me - but from each other.

This is a lot cheaper.

Yes, it does help to have a few seeds with a very high upload speed but even without, the speeds are phenominal!

I'd recomend trying Bit Torrent. Purely for downloading Linux ISOs, of course. You'll be impressed by the speeds you get even on files with very few seeders.

Terry
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Old 02-19-2005, 07:18 AM   #29 (Print)
iankb
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Quote:
Originally Posted by terryeden
That's where I beleive you to be wrong....

Yes, it does help to have a few seeds with a very high upload speed but even without, the speeds are phenominal!
I wouldn't disagree at the moment.

When the average leech/seed has an ADSL download speed of 512Kbps, and 256Kbps upload speed, then the average user would have to be using more than 50% of their download capacity before degradation would be noticed.

However, when the average leech/seed has an ADSL download speed of 12Mbps, but still has a 256Kbps upload speed, then degradation would be noticed when the average user used more than 2% of their download capacity. OK, significant degradation from 12Mbps would be quite acceptable but, in the worse case, the actual download speed could be as slow as when they only had 512Kbps connections.

I am talking about the potential problems with the growth of peer-to-peer on ADSL connections, and its ability to handle a significant part of the video file distribution requirement as download speeds get much faster. At the moment, I'm sure that it works very well, and would probably try it myself if I could think of anything that I really wanted to watch that much; and had managed to get through the backlog of my TiVo recordings. Maybe when I completely miss an episode of '24', I will become an avid user.

I'm not criticising the concept of BitTorrent, which is a very clever product. I'm just pointing out the liimitations in the future if the average connection still uses ADSL.

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Old 02-19-2005, 10:46 AM   #30 (Print)
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Envisional research story. Take 3
Quote:
Broadcasters and television production companies are about to begin prosecuting the "cappers", and are expected to take steps to protect their programmes from piracy by offering the latest episodes of shows for download around the world for a small fee as soon as they are broadcast.

TV piracy is more prevalent in Britain than the US because many popular American shows are not aired in Europe until months after their first showing.

Top pirated shows:
1 24
2 Stargate Atlantis
3 The Simpsons
4 Enterprise
5 Stargate SG-1
6 The OC
7 Smallville
8 Desperate Housewives
9 Battlestar Galactica
10 Lost >
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/s...1417906,00.html


Mmm. Broadcasters offering the latest episodes of shows for download around the world for a small fee as soon as they are broadcast (especially if TiVo Inc. were to design the software Season Pass/Wishlist front end).
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